I speak as a sociologist, and not as an economist, and therefore beg for your patience.
Os Guinness spoke of three enduring first-principles, faith, knowledge, and virtue. In a market-related sense, we could say that they refer to attitude, aptitude, and altitude.
If one were to apply the sociological stress test to sustainable development one would ask three things: first, what is the market’s mood [attitude] in the prevailing economic condition, second, what has the market learned from the past that it would not want to repeat [aptitude], and third, what are the means at the market’s disposal that it can change – what is it’s vision or direction, and realizable application [altitude]?
The mood [attitude] is decidedly pessimistic. Martin Wolf’s excellent FT article, on the 24th November 2011, titled, “To the Eurozone: advance or risk ruin”” makes the point that something practical needs to be done instantaneously. This was similarly confirmed by a recent survey carried out to more than 1600 executives. A poor attitude is a warning sign that change is needed. One might say that usually the worse the attitude, the greater the need for sensible and practical change or adjustment – like the hand that approaches a red-hot stove plate!
The collective discernment [aptitude] screams out the need for recognition of and adjustment to a number of things. Here are a few:
- The global economic ‘tree’ is in dire need of a pruning. Without pruning, a tree becomes increasingly unproductive. We should ask: is our global economy not like a giant un-pruned tree? And if so, then who will do the pruning? Pruning is feared where vision is short and vested interests are allowed to manipulate. Pruning is a value – an ethic, and where values are concerned, strong character will always be called upon [a faith attitude]. The pruning principle, teaches that austerity is not necessarily an enemy. Will we be prepared to do the hard little and great things. We each know what it will take, personally, communally, and societally. We each have our respective spheres of influence, and can in an instant begin to make the necessary adjustments. I am reminded of a statement made by Marcia St. Martin, executive director of S&WB, to the citizens of the greater New Orleans area, as that region faced a hurricane of disastrous proportions. She said that if each of one million citizens of the area were to simply clear their drains, that the collective effect of that one act would avert disaster for that region. Here again we see the power of what a collective change of attitude, and the corresponding aptitude to decide and to act, can do to save a potentially unredeemable situation.
- Where pruning is resisted, breakdown is imminent, or inevitable. Where necessary discipline is avoided, austerity is ultimately imposed. Already, executives are giving furtive looks to alternative markets in a bid to hedge against the consequences of euro disaster. Everyone has the ‘aptitude’ to know that there is a problem, and to act responsibly. In the US, under the guise of a “stress test” the Fed is preparing for the worse, even while throwing out the disclaimer that ‘this is not a forecast’. In other places Central banks are buying gold at unprecedented levels [again, disclaimers noted]. Frankly, the vital signs are not good, and one cannot blame everyone for taking protective measures, but this only confirms the point that any delay in exacting the necessary present discipline will only heighten the consequences later. We have the aptitude, so let’s use it. Where is the leader that will stand up and say so?
- Without a proper long-term vision of the global economy [altitude], we will commit ourselves to interminable cycles of revisions, and ineffective adjustments. Two things are required. First, identifying the important little steps, such as the Fed’s “stress test” on some thirty major US banks. Second, agreeing on a long-term vision – leadership has to gain some ‘altitude’. For instance, we have to break out of the swamp of subsidiary sovereignty [Charles Goodhart]. Will someone stand up and take the helm, and will we allow them to do so?
- The greatest deterrent to a sustainable economic future, is a view of global economic reality as constituting many independent trees capable of independent existence. What does this mean to the strongest possible vision of a sustainable economic future? For instance, in Europe, it is to see that the only possible economic reality is that they can only stand as one. This view might perhaps finally propel the European union to more unified fiscal policy. If one were to view the one economic tree as either living or dying, and not as a dozen trees each capable of self-protection, then we might have the vision to act radically and promptly.
- For the family of nations, the greatest danger to a healthy global future safe for our children is unhindered gluttony, and unrestrained selfishness. Any vision of the future that does not factor in the need for decisions internally that benefits others externally is unsustainable. We need not only the right attitude [faith], nor not only the right aptitude [discernment; assessments, and responsible actions], but also the right altitude – values of selflessness; gratitude; honor; respect for everyone, and the constant reminder that we only each have what was generously given to us by others.
An old African proverb warns that those who would only shoot the white stripes of the Zebra, would kill the whole animal just the same!
